Predictions, Convictions & Concoctions

Welcome to Warning Track Power, an independent newsletter of baseball stories and analysis grounded in front office and scouting experiences and the personalities encountered along the way.

Before closing the book on 2023, I want to share a story I sat on throughout the baseball season.

Just before Opening day, I spoke to comedy writer Mike Sacks. Our conversation covered many topics, including writing, baseball in the ’70s and ’80s, and the sights and sounds of Ocean City, Maryland, in the summer. When asked about the then-upcoming season, Sacks told me that he thought the Orioles would win “15 more games than last year.” I omitted his prediction from the story because it felt equally ambitious and unrehearsed. I didn’t want to frame him as a fan without valuable insights. I didn’t want to detract from his talents as an author and comic. I was afraid of undermining his credibility.

Fifteen more wins? That would have amounted to 98.

I thought I was protecting him; the 101-win Orioles wonder why Sacks was so conservative.

Prior to the August 1 trade deadline, Sacks and I revisited our earlier conversation. He had no recollection of his preseason prognosticating, though he seemed amused to learn that the O’s were on pace to exceed his lofty number. True fan that he is, Sacks was more concerned about the shape of the team’s bullpen. I smirked. I tried to reason that with Felix Bautista and Yannier Cano holding down the final two innings, opponents only had seven innings to score off Baltimore pitching. Sacks wanted another high-leverage reliever. The deadline passed with no material improvements made to the pen. A few weeks later, Bautista suffered an injury to his UCL that ultimately required Tommy John surgery.

There’s a saying in baseball that goes something like: When you think you have enough starting pitching, go get more. The same could apply to a bullpen. Sacks was right again. Maybe it’s time to listen to the man who records most O’s games and watches them the following morning with no knowledge of the previous night’s outcome. (While I have never been one shield myself from the scores of completed games, I am curious about and envious of the freedom of a life without baseball-related compulsions and spoilers.)

In retrospect, I wish I had shared in early April that Sacks predicted 98 wins for the Orioles. He deserved that! So in 2024, I intend to listen with an objective curiosity.

The more I’ve thought about the best listeners I know, the more I realize how present they are in conversation. In a world of distractions, they offer unwavering focus. An unexpected benefit of writing WTP is the grounding nature of the process. When I write, I am present.

When I coach my kids’ softball and baseball teams, I am present. It’s not always the case, though. I’m grateful for a new opportunity that, I’ve realized, tethers me to the present.

Perhaps 2024 is the year of the boomerang. For the first time in nearly 20 years, I am writing professionally about wine. Wine and baseball, baseball and wine: They make a funny Venn diagram, but my passions and skills lie largely in the overlap. Why resist? I’m excited to find out who else might journey into that intersection.

It’s a long story, too long for right now, but I thought about it often while soliciting advice for aspiring baseball professionals from established folks in the industry: For me, there’s no professional baseball career without wine. Coding? Biomechanics? Data analysis?

How about wine? Wine was my sabermetrics.

I learned that, as pretentious and intimidating as wine can feel to some, if presented correctly, it opens many more doors than it closes. That’s the angle I intend to take as I resume exploring the wonders of fermented grape juice.

Both baseball and wine offer an opportunity for endless learning. Each year, a new crop emerges. We evaluate, project, and assign value. No one ever gets it all right. We follow prospects, futures, blue chips, favorites and underdogs. Not to mention the people behind the scenes. Since receiving a couple story assignments last month, I’ve remembered so much about what I loved about wine to begin with: Each bottle assumes new meaning based on where and with whom we drink it.

As I taste wines and interact with professionals in the industry, not every story will be fit for the site I’m writing for. (I’ll share a link when my initial story is published.) Until I find the right home for all my wine writing, I intend to add some notes and stories in a separate area under the WTP umbrella. You’ll be able to opt in if you wish when the time comes. As always, I will blend baseball into the stories when I can.

Wine and baseball give us a reason to be present with each other. I look forward to sharing many of those moments with you in the new year.

And, of course, in a few months we’ll get Mike Sacks’ uncensored and unfiltered predictions for the new season.

Happy New Year!

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