The Day The Strikeouts Took Over
Maybe cold hard cash could help overthrow the Ks reign of terror
There was a math assignment from third grade I was thinking about recently. (How did I remember it? I have no idea — it’s a pandemic and my brain occasionally goes unchaperoned.) It entailed creating a visualization of a significant quantity of any singular thing through a representative symbol.
On a piece of paper, I wrote out 276 Ks — forwards and backwards, though not at all an accurate reflection of the manner and order in which the victims went down. The quantity of Ks accounted for every one of Doc Gooden’s record number of strikeouts in a single season by a rookie pitcher — a feat that the 1984 NL Rookie of the Year had recently accomplished.
I remember writing out each K, forming rows of 10, then going back to recount them and make sure I had credited Gooden with the correct amount.
In 1984, MLB pitchers averaged 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings. This past season, that figure climbed to 9.1 K/9 — the first time in MLB history that the average number of strikeouts exceeded one per inning. In fact, in each season from 2008 through 2020, the record has been broken.
Put another way, the top 13 all-time seasons of strikeout rates are the most recent 13 seasons in descending order. The 2008 campaign featured 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings, and that mark set the single-season record. Every year since then, a new record has been established.
When progress occurs incrementally, it’s often difficult to discern while in the moment. You may not have to go all the way back to third grade, but — with the benefit of distance and perspective — you can locate the point along the timeline when a trend or movement presented itself.
For me, it was during a six-game stretch at Yankee Stadium in 2017 that began on August 25.
I was scouting the Yankees while they were hosting the Seattle Mariners and the about-to-be-historically-hot Cleveland Indians. Over those six games, I witnessed 106 strikeouts for an average of 8.7 K/9. (Before you try the math at home, let me inform you that there was one 11-inning game, and the Yanks didn’t bat in the home half of the ninth on two occasions.)
And it felt like even more than that. Maybe it was because the Yankees were running out relievers like Dellin Betances (15.1 K/9 in 2017), Chad Green (13.4), and Aroldis Chapman (12.3), while the Mariners had Edwin Diaz (12.1 K/9) and James Pazos (10.9), and the Indians called upon Andrew Miller (13.6 K/9), Cody Allen (12.3), and Nick Goody (11.9).
Walk rates reached a 10-year high in 2020 at 3.5 per nine innings, but walks overall haven’t operated like strikeouts have. The frequency of walks in 2018 (3.2 BB/9) was the same as it was in Gooden’s 1984 rookie campaign.
What I noticed over that stretch of games at Yankee Stadium was that there were some pitchers who were more than willing to sell out for the strikeout. Betances, who was selected to the American League All-Star team for the fourth consecutive season in 2017, employed an approach I had never seen in the big leagues. He looked like he believed he could get a batter to chase his curveball three times before taking it four times. And he also seemed happy to extrapolate that strategy over the course of an inning, essentially endeavoring to generate three strikeouts before surrendering four walks. With a 99 MPH fastball and a power curveball, the strategy worked. How else can you explain a grotesque walk rate of 6.6 per nine innings coexisting with an impressive ERA+ of 158 (suggesting he was 58% better than league average)?
In 2017, Betances faced 261 batters. Of that group, 155 struck out, walked, or were hit by the pitch. The remaining 41% of plate appearances resulted with a ball in play. As a wise man once said: “Strikeouts are boring; besides that, they’re fascist.”
The Betances approach seemed contagious. The differentiating factor among pitchers was their control and/or willingness to invite contact.
Base hits were down significantly last season. The last time the hit rate was as low as it was last year was 1906. Don’t you remember when Mordecai Brown went 26-6 with a 1.04 ERA for the Cubs and Nap Lajoie drove in 91 for the Indians without hitting a single home run? That was way before third grade.
It’s been a popular refrain around the game in recent years: there’s not enough action; too many strikeouts; not enough balls in play. Well, strikeouts come easier when hitters abandon two-strike approaches in exchange for the long ball. The two highest home run rates came in — you guessed it — the past two seasons.
In arbitration, power pays. Overwhelming strikeout rates certain don’t hurt a pitcher’s case either. You see how this lines up — follow the money.
Additionally, the proliferation of pitch-related data over the past several years has equipped pitchers, coaches, and analysts with so much more actionable information than had ever been available. It has expanded the gulf between the proactive nature of pitching and reactive nature of hitting. Pitchers understand better than ever how they dictate play.
I didn’t set out to write a How To Fix Baseball piece; I love baseball unconditionally, and I’m not telling anyone to get off my lawn. I opened with third-grade math because it was a better story than the one about the spelling bee. But if I’m going to suggest to follow the money, then maybe we should let that frame our thinking.
Well, what if baseball significantly augments the postseason player pool? What if players receive more — I mean a lot more — money for reaching the playoffs and even more for winning? Maybe the winning owners receive a little something — an incentive to win delivered in a language that everyone understands! If we can’t immediately impact the game pitch by pitch, maybe we can improve the integrity of competition.
Is there a perception/reality issue with incentivizing well-paid athletes and incredibly wealthy owners for winning — something they should care about regardless? Of course. But complaining about the millionaires vs. the billionaires is nothing new. Don’t forget — we love baseball.
Right now, inaction, indifference, and losing are rewarded too greatly.
The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1 of this year. Some believe that Major League Baseball may push for rules changes to foster more action — more balls in play — as part of a new agreement. I have my doubts. Last season, MLB rules required that a relief pitcher face at least three batters or finish the inning before being replaced. As we already know, that didn’t slow strikeouts. While it may have sped up pace of play, it didn’t lead to better play.
The league and owners may not want to admit it, but part of the solution could be in a higher league-minimum salary and earlier access to free agency for players. Perhaps then, pitchers will plan for tomorrow, not just today, and find motivation in getting back in the dugout having thrown fewer pitches.
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Great, thoughtful piece. I like K’s but don’t love K’s. I also want to hear the spelling bee story now.