The Orioles Are Winning
The Orioles Are Winning
Now come the hard decisions
Welcome to Warning Track Power, a weekly newsletter of baseball stories and analysis grounded in front office and scouting experiences and the personalities encountered along the way.
This is a piece I’ve been contemplating for almost three months. Since May 21, actually.
On that day, I began thinking about how we mark time over the course of a 162-game season, a season that can offer ecstasy in its monotony, and one that marches on at a pace allowing for reflection only until the next game’s first pitch.
Why was it, then, that May 21, 2022 has stuck with me like pine tar on batting gloves years after their final at bat?
Well, on that date, the future of the Orioles arrived. The excitement of the day was cloaked in defeat. Like any organization that properly seeks bottom and finds it, good news sometimes must be found in unpleasant places.
On that day, an announced crowd of 17,573 socially distanced around Camden Yards to watch the Rays dispatch of the home team, 6-1, in a considerately paced two hours and fifty-three minutes.
Major League teams take no pleasure in moral victories, what with scrimping sports editors having removed that column from the standings long ago. But in front of an audience that has endured 108-115 losses over the past three full seasons, something finally pierced the springtime malaise that choked the oxygen out of a once-proud sports city. Someone appeared, and he brought with him the promise of better times.
For on May 21, batting sixth and doing the catching was Adley Rutschman.
This kid loves to play baseball.
By early June, Orioles games had become fun to watch again. Even as the team played .500 ball during the 24-year-old catcher’s first four weeks — hardly a clip to scoff at given the past five years — the energy in the dugout, on the field, and at the ballpark felt noticeably different, even on TV. Were fans smiling once again?
During the first 30 games of Rutschman’s big league tenure, Baltimore still never won more than two games consecutively. Even so, the team appeared stable. Out of the woods? Hell no. But doctors were cautiously optimistic.
Later in June, I began to search for existing signals of a rebuilding team’s return to competitive baseball. Was there something beneath the wins and losses that might tip us off? (Honestly, before I could even venture too far down this rabbit hole, the Orioles began winning so much that it made my question sound foolish.)
Nonetheless, the best place to start any tanking/rebuilding conversation is with the Houston Astros of 2011-2013, the first team to commit wholeheartedly to strategically sucking.
Orioles GM Mike Elias was part of the Astros organization back then. He witnessed the (intentional) losing first hand. When he was hired by the Angelos family to run baseball operations for the O’s, everyone in the room had to commit to the plan.
Imagine an interview in which the candidate proposes losing 115 games in year one. And, if all goes well, the candidate continues, we’ll do it again for two more seasons.
The organization’s strategy was not for traditionalists, nor was it for many who clung wistfully to the Oriole Way.
Adhering to the plan requires much more discipline than can be communicated via PowerPoint. It requires reciting clichés about drafting and developing day in and day out for years; it calls for confidence while your on-field product embarrasses a fan base and a city; it collapses without the leadership to keep employee morale high amidst a 19-game losing streak.
That may be the reason why, with all the talk around the game of noncompetitive teams, only a few have ever not competed correctly. The Astros look to be the champions* of it, though this space will certainly never forget the way they treated their trash cans.
The Cubs lost a lot of games in the first three years of Theo Epstein’s leadership before winning the World Series in year five. Epstein had the respect and autonomy, I imagine, to chart the course at Wrigley however he saw fit. It worked.
Beyond those two clubs, no other organization has embraced tanking like the O’s have. Many have fooled around with losing, but a fear of commitment to the rebuild has kept them from getting serious.
In Washington, D.C., the process has been dubbed a “reboot.” The reboot is weighed down by the hefty long-term contracts of pitchers Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg. Rebuilds have no room for dead weight.
In other cities, ownership stands in the way of proper rebuilds; why is Kris Bryant even in a Rockies uniform?
Then there are the Tigers, a team whose losing ways cost GM Al Avila his job earlier this week. Detroit committed $140 million to Javier Baez and $77 million to Eduardo Rodriguez this past offseason. The Tigers are currently on pace to lose 100 games, and the underperformance of both premier free agent acquisitions are a part of the problem.
Meanwhile, the Orioles — a team that has allocated its offseason resources to the Rule 5 Draft and minor league free agency — has played its way into contention. Playoff contention!
The O’s have won 58 games this season, the most they’ve tallied in a single season since 2017. When other owners check the standings and then check the payrolls, it won’t result in good news for baseball executives around the game.
This year, Baltimore has an MLB-low payroll of about $43.4 million, two million less than that of the Oakland A’s. (League average is $148 million.)
How can the industry ignore what the Orioles are accomplishing? It’s hard to envision a scenario in which this current season isn’t viewed as a success by the front office and fans alike. The team is 58-53 through its first 111 games. At the same point last year, they were 38-73 — and it was only getting worse.
A 20-game turnaround is astounding, no matter how low the bar has been set.
The O’s currently have the 14th best record in baseball, ahead of the White Sox, Red Sox, and Giants — three playoff teams from last year.
This vintage of Oriole might break the curve in a different way than the Moneyball A’s or Devil-free Rays did previously; the key here is discipline and excellent evaluating.
It’s not uncommon for rebuilding clubs to emerge one year early. This season looked to be the year where maybe things in Charm City would be a little better, by which I mean the team wouldn’t lose 100 games. Instead, everyday players making near the league minimum have performed.
It’s as if an entire offseason played out between Opening Day and June 1, and the players returned one year wiser and one year better. And the wins keep coming.
Forty-two of those wins have come since May 21. Simply, Rutschman brings two-way talent and the energy of a golden retriever puppy to the ballpark every night. The best part of Orioles wins is seeing the rookie react.
While an outstanding bullpen has been key to the recent success, it can’t be denied that the team has played a magical style of ball since Rutschman arrived.
The next step for Elias will be his most challenging yet: spending money. So far, he hasn’t committed significant money in free agency. The focus has been on the draft and in making marginal improvements to the Major League roster on the cheap. It’s worked. The work in the draft, in particular, has been outstanding.
It also needs to be noted that the previous regime acquired some solid contributors. Anthony Santander was a Rule 5 selection by Dan Duquette and his group. Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, and Cedric Mullins — three everyday players — in addition to the recently traded Trey Mancini were all drafted under Duquette’s watch.
All-Star pitcher John Means and current closer Felix Bautista were also in the organization before Elias took control.
Often, when an organization cleans house, the incoming leaders do not receive such a bounty of talent. That these players were in the system when the rebuild began cannot be overstated.
Additionally, the most recent draft classes are knocking on the door, with Rutschman already leading the way to Camden Yards.
I saw Gunnar Henderson, who was the second-round pick of the O’s in 2019 (keep in mind Rutschman was their first-rounder) at the Futures Game in Los Angeles last month. It was a limited look, but enough to see his athleticism, his above-average throwing arm, and his high-energy approach on the bases.
Baseball America named him the top prospect in baseball in its recent in-season rankings. He will be a fixture on the left side of the infield and should be in next year’s Opening Day lineup.
So how does Elias fortify the roster?
This winter, it will be time to build off the strong foundation in free agency.
Pitcher Jordan Lyles, who was signed to a one-year deal in March that guarantees the player $7 million (including the buyout on a 2023 option), represents the largest commitment made to any free agent in Elias’ four seasons.
I’m curious to see, first, how an organization that hasn’t spent significantly in years responds to market prices. The Orioles have profited in a revenue-sharing system that does not incentivize winning.
The team’s operating income in 2021 was reported to be $83 million. That’s some reward for losing 110 games.
After this year’s World Series concludes, the funny money will be thrown around.
Aaron Judge. Trea Turner. Carlos Correa, perhaps. Jacob deGrom. Any of these free agents augments a team’s trajectory immediately.
Elias was reportedly one of Correa’s biggest advocates when the Astros selected him first overall in the 2012 Draft. The shortstop has an opt-out in his contract with the Twins, and it’s easy to see the Orioles GM dishing out his first nine-figure guarantee to an impact player with whom he has significant history.
The opportunities to add established talent to the club exist. Expectations will change. Costs will rise. Dramatically.
The focus will no longer be on improving the back of the roster, while churning through players like Rio Ruiz, Hanser Alberto, or Mason Williams.
The free agent pool will also include Jason Heyward, whom the Cubs announced this week would be released from the roster following the season even though he has one year remaining on his contract. Heyward signed an eight-year, $184 million deal with Chicago prior to the 2016 season, but he never performed as he had during his time with Atlanta and St. Louis.
He was a key part of the World Series team in Chicago, and he offers as a cautionary tale to free-agent shoppers.
Whoever walks through those clubhouse doors in February is going to make in one season close to what the entire 40-man roster pulls down this year. It will signal a new Orioles direction. And I expect Adley Rutschman to be smiling all the way.
WTP offers free and paid versions. Subscribe now and never miss a single edition.