Zoning in on Pujols
Searching for a sign that Albert's LA revival is for real.
The sound of ash meeting horsehide is part of the American fabric. It’s also alarming as hell when you have your head down in notes.
I was caught looking more than once over the years – looking down, nose in my notes, that is.
I spent last week talking about the escalating lack of contact in the game. Over the past few days, I’ve thought about the simplest and most meaningful piece of scouting advice I was ever given: Just watch the game.
Sure, there’s a time and place for jotting down pitchers’ velocities, batters’ run times from home to first, and the arm strength of outfielders, but the game is on the field —out in front of you — not on a note card in your lap.
If you watch the game, the players will reveal themselves. Just watch.
Those who spend too much time in the numbers run the risk of missing the game. Trust what you see and then find out if the numbers validate or challenge what your eye told you.
With zone-contact rates and Bill Lajoie’s words still on my mind, I saw a three-pitch at bat over the weekend that hinted at why there’s so much swing and miss in today’s game.
Aroldis Chapman was one out away from securing the save against the A’s last Saturday. With two on and two out, Oakland’s third baseman Matt Chapman dug in as the potential go-ahead run. He had already homered earlier in the day.
This Chapman vs. Chapman showdown belonged to the pitcher, though. Aroldis pumped three fastballs by Matt: 101, 101, 103.
(When Ricky Vaughn strikes out Haywood in the dramatic at-bat towards the end of Major League, Vaughn’s fastball velocities are only 97, 99, and 101. Even Hollywood knew better than to script Charlie Sheen’s character as throwing unrealistically fast. Someone should have given that man some Spider Tack.)
It’s understandable that as the average fastball velocity rises across MLB, the ability to hit said fastballs would diminish. Matt Chapman might have been able to catch up to Ricky “Wild Thing” Vaughn, but he wasn’t getting a bite of Aroldis’ cheese.
When future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols was released by the Angels in May, I thought that might be it for his career. The three-time NL MVP had struggled consistently over the past few years.
I’ll admit I was surprised when Los Angeles signed him, and I’ve been even more surprised by his performance in Dodger Blue.
There are certain players referred to as “change-of-scenery” guys. There’s no analytics behind it, simply the belief that a certain player will benefit from a new team and a new environment.
That certainly could be the case for Pujols. His Angels career was a huge disappointment; his production dropped off immediately after he left St. Louis, and the Angels’ inability to reach the playoffs continuously plagues the entire organization.
About 30 miles north of Angel Stadium, Pujols found himself in a new clubhouse — that of the defending World Series champions — and a different culture.
Knowing the Dodgers front office, however, it would be lazy to conclude that they were simply taking a foundationless flier on Pujols.
Last week, we focused on zone-contact. Now, we will look outside the zone.
The key to Pujols resurgence may lie in his O-contact %, or the rate at which he makes contact with pitches outside of the strike zone.
His career O-contact % is about 62 %. With the Angels this season, he was only making contact with about 49% of pitches he swung at out of the zone. As a member of the Dodgers, his rate is 72.7%.
First things first, we’re dealing with a small sample size. Secondly, unless we get out of the numbers and just watch the game, we don’t know anything about the quality of contact on pitches outside the zone.
There is no statistically significant difference in exit velocities or percentage of hard hit balls between his Angels and Dodgers at bats. He is, however, having much greater success versus fastballs as a Dodger.
Additionally, his ground ball rate has increased, and that could translate into more base hits. (His BABIP has increased to a still-paltry .242 from a horrific .176 with the Angels.)
Perhaps he’s being sequenced differently in the National League and it’s more to his liking. Perhaps he understands and accepts his role (as a part-time player) on the Dodgers’ roster, and that’s lead to inner peace.
Perhaps, again, he’s the beneficiary of a change of scenery and these numbers normalize before too long.
When a future first-ballot Hall of Famer resuscitates his career — and does so with a championship organization well known for its ingenuity and success in player development — it’s worth taking notice.
Will his modest resurgence continue long enough to last the rest of the season? Will he build off his first 85 plate appearances as a Dodger and improve? I’ll be watching, as will millions of Dodgers fans around the globe.
Don’t Forget About The First-Place Team
The Dodgers and Padres have won the headlines in the NL West this season, but it’s the Giants that lead the division.
National MLB columnist Scott Miller wrote an excellent piece on San Francisco last weekend for the New York Times. It’s WTP’s recommended reading for the week.
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Speaking of recommended reading... I have a small amount of space available for a longer read. What's a book that's come out in the last 10-20 years about baseball that is a required read? Maybe you have to make a list. FYI - I think the last books I read about baseball were Moneyball and something by George Will.