The Padres Develop Big Leaguers

The Angels have gone 16-3 against teams from their home state and 43-59 against the rest of North America. They can call themselves whatever they want, but the record shows they truly are the California Angels.

I heard a story not too long ago about a player who spent an offseason working on a weakness that pitchers had exploited. The data, it seemed, had convinced the player to commit a significant amount of time to addressing this flaw. It’s a game of adjustments after all. The empirical evidence — presented in such visually appealing ways these days with the deep blues of heat maps and fiery reds of hot zones — distracted the player from the bigger picture. He had put together an all-around outstanding season by doing many things very well.

The trouble, according to his batting average the following year, was that in focusing on one weakness he had failed to maintain his strengths.

It’s human nature, it’s ego, it’s competitiveness. We want to fix what’s wrong.

There lives a quieter school of thought, one that sits cross-legged under a craggy old tree (perhaps wearing baggy gym shorts and a floppy hat), one that would advise us to double down on our strengths and farm out our weaknesses — that’s what the bench and bullpen are for after all.

In the case of the hitter, he could have tipped his cap to the pitchers who are good enough to match their strengths to his weakness consistently, or — even better — learned to lay off that pitch. Wait for his. The hitter must trust that he’ll get his pitch enough times over the course of a week or a month; that one weakness should have been nothing more than a footnote to a season of hard contact.

There is power in growing your strengths.

Right on time, Padres president of baseball operations AJ Preller continued his annual tradition of dipping into his farm system to improve the big league club.

Okay, let me ask: Did you read that last sentence as pejorative? That wasn’t my intent. But, like we’ve discussed many times here before, the industry as a whole prioritizes future value over present value. After a post-deadline report claimed the Padres farm system had become worst in all of baseball, several news agencies took the news and ran with it. Missing is the news that, on July 31, San Diego trailed the Dodgers by three games, and today the Padres lead the NL West by one. Perspective is a choice.

I am reminded of a philosophy that one of my colleagues in Arizona often shared: “Our job is not to develop Diamondbacks; it’s to develop big leaguers.”

The Padres, it seems, were listening. (In fact, they may argue that their job is simply to develop players that other teams perceive as big leaguers.)

Preller added to his strengths, acquiring closer Mason Miller from the A’s for a package that included top prospect Leo De Vries. He sent six minor leaguers, all selected in the 2024 Draft, to the Orioles for Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn. The Padres also added depth to the starting rotation and improved their situation behind the plate.

A strong bullpen became even stronger, a point that we’ll hear again and again in the postseason. Excellent outfield defense now extends from foul pole to foul pole. The collectively fragile rotation was reinforced. Upgrades to the lineup strengthened a flimsy bench, and the team is in a position to play deep into October. The Padres fortified their roster in pursuit of a World Series. What more could a fan want?

Until the rules allow for more than eight position players on the field, there’s only so much that minor league assets can do. And that leads to the crux of the matter: the Padres’ ability to acquire and develop young players whom other teams covet.

In Washington, James Wood and CJ Abrams form the nucleus of a young core; they were part of the ransom for Juan Soto. In Miami, Xavier Edwards, Jakob Marsee, and Graham Pauley have settled into the Marlins’ everyday lineup. Those players were involved in deals that returned Jake Cronenworth, Luis Arraez, and Tanner Scott to San Diego.

Just yesterday, 23-year-old Owen Caissie debuted for the Cubs. He was a big part of the trade that put Yu Darvish in the brown and gold.

Guess which team has the fewest homegrown players on its 26-man roster? Right. The Padres: three.¹ One of those former farmhands is Jackson Merrill. He’s a good reminder that the team hasn’t traded away all of its future stars.

As we enter the final six weeks of the regular season, let’s keep in mind that the greatest gift to any fan is a team aggressively trying to win. The Padres competitive window is wide open right now, a condition supported both by a top-10 payroll and outstanding player procurement. The team is responding.

I found inspiration in an unlikely — or perhaps underappreciated (or misunderstood) — player. When the Padres signed Xander Bogaerts to a $280 million free agent contract a few years ago, it raised eyebrows around the league. Erstwhile owner Peter Seidler made no apologies. He wanted to win. Two years after his passing, the urgency is even more understandable.

Bogaerts is quietly putting together a more complete campaign than he did last season, one in which he was asked to move to the right side of the diamond to accommodate Ha-Seong Kim. The pivot to second base may have created some nagging physical troubles. Regardless, a fractured left shoulder cost him nearly two months of the 2024 season. Back at his preferred position this year, the four-time All-Star has found some spring in his step.

At 32 — he’ll turn 33 as the postseason begins — many players aren’t establishing career highs in stolen bases. But with his next steal, that’s exactly what Bogaerts will have done. With 19 successful swipes so far, he’s matched his total from 2023, his first season wearing the Padres colors. In fact, since coming to San Diego, Bogaerts has stolen bases with a nearly 90% success rate. As much as anyone else in the game, he’s proving that stealing bases isn’t just about blazing speed.

Here’s what’s got me excited: Bogaerts doesn’t need to steal bases for a negotiation. He doesn’t need to pad his stats out of vanity. His current contract guarantees him $200 million over the next eight years. He’s stealing bases to help his team win games. (Yes, that’s what we should expect out of every player who takes the field.)

Talk to any base stealer, and they’ll tell you it’s a punishing pursuit. The headfirst slides, the hard tags, the jammed fingers. When Kirk Gibson managed the D-backs in a time before pitch clocks and disengagement limits, he loved to instruct pitchers to throw over multiple times. He spoke from experience. The wear and tear of diving back into first base could break a baserunner’s spirit.

For a player who has battled soreness this season in his previously fractured shoulder, laying his body on the line speaks to the sacrifice he’ll make for his teammates. It speaks of clubhouse culture. It makes me believe in the manager.

Last November, manager Mike Shildt signed an extension that secures his services in the Padres dugout through 2027. Next season will mark the first time since Andy Green skippered the team in 2019 that a Padres manager has lasted more than two years.

Shildt also looks poised to break the “Year Two Curse.”

Rookie manager Jayce Tingler guided the Padres to the postseason in the pandemic-shortened season. In 2021, however, the team finished under .500 and Tingler was cut loose.

In 2022, veteran manager Bob Melvin led the team to the NLCS, but when the Padres missed the playoffs the following year, no one stood in the way when the Giants expressed interested in Melvin’s services.

Shildt’s Padres won 93 games last year and are on pace for a 92-win season — and another playoff appearance. Preller has lengthened the lineup and shortened the game. Bogaerts is stealing bases. And somewhere the Padres are developing big leaguers.

Royals catcher Salvador Perez is the one catcher to nab Bogaerts this year. With two outs in the bottom of the fourth on June 20, Bogaerts attempted to move himself into scoring position. Pitcher Michael Lorenzen delivered what looks like a reined in pitchout, allowing his catcher to put himself into a great throwing position. It was a very close play, but from two slow-motion angles, it appears that Bobby Witt Jr’s tag gets him in time. (You can watch it here.)

1. Adrian Morejon, David Morgan, Jackson Merrill. Morejon was signed out of Cuba for $11 million during the Padres’ infamous and strategic international signing frenzy of 2016. Morgan was an undrafted free agent out of Hope International University, an NAIA school in southern California; his presence on the roster is a testament to scouting and development.