Just Saying No

Two lefties on divergent paths put up the same zeroes

It was just last week that we were pondering the relevance of Madison Bumgarner’s seven-inning faux-no. Before you all even fished that email out of your spam folder, Orioles lefty John Means was putting the finishing touches on a full-length no-hitter.

As part of the effort, Means made history by throwing the first ever no-hitter in which the only baserunner to reach base did so on a dropped third strike. No walks, nobody hit by a pitch, and nobody reached on an error. I never would have predicted it.

Means and I go back several years, although — fortunately for both of us — he doesn’t know this.

I scouted Means in 2015 when he pitching for the Delmarva Shorebirds, the low-A affiliate of the O’s. I was so impressed with him that I concluded that he’d max out in AA, likely as a relief pitcher.

“Stuff is short,” I wrote. “Likely move to bullpen by AA, where he tops out.”

Safe to say I missed on Means. Reviewing my report, I began to look for where I went wrong. In scouting, it’s always easy to talk about what a player can’t do. The vast majority of players in the low minors won’t make it to the big leagues anyway. I wondered if I didn’t give enough credence to what he could do.

I saw Means make two starts with Delmarva. I liked his delivery, arm action, and size — a few foundational components to projecting development. He also showed an ability to throw strikes consistently, but — to me — the quality of the strikes wasn’t great.

His curveball showed better when I saw him for a second time during the 2015 season — and it was his better secondary pitch — but I didn’t see anything to warrant a change in my overall report. And that’s where it ended for me.

His fastball velocity sat comfortably around 88 MPH, and — even from the left side — you don’t see a lot of big league pitchers in that neighborhood. During last week’s no-hitter, Means’ fastball averaged 93.3 MPH — down from his average in 2020 — and he topped out at 95.

Means’ changeup, which was a below-average offering in the minors, has become a plus weapon — and one he relied on often during the final three innings of his gem against Seattle.

Nowhere in my scouting report on Means did I project he’d arrive at Camden Yards. Todd Olszewski/Baltimore Orioles

Chris Holt, who was the O’s minor league pitching coordinator before rising to Major League pitching coach this season, is credited with reworking Means’ changeup.

After the 2018 season, Means spent time at a training facility specifically designed for pitchers. He built arm strength through new workout programs. By the next spring, his fastball sat in the low 90s, and he had a markedly improved understanding of how to use data he was presented with. (That overall evolution is way too impressive for only one paragraph, yes.)

As teams continue to thin out scouting departments, I think about the development of John Means. It’s awfully hard for a scout to include in a specific report something to the effect of: “Should reexamine training methodologies and usage of data to improve value as a prospect.”

I wonder if there were other markers.

One For The Garden Gnome

Two nights after Means’ no-no, another lefty took his turn.

While a gain in velocity was critical to Means’ success, Reds pitcher and former first-rounder Wade Miley no-hit the Indians with only seven of 114 total pitches reaching 90 MPH.

Miley was drafted in 2008 by the Diamondbacks, and I was part of a group that benefited from the work of erstwhile scouting director Tommy Allison. When I joined the D-backs prior to the 2011 season, Miley was close to Major League ready.

In 2012, he was an All-Star and finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting — to Bryce Harper.

(While he lost out on the hardware that year, he was forever memorialized in a 2013 Diamondbacks promotional giveaway: the Wade Miley garden gnome. I’m not sure how I left that one behind in Arizona, especially after it survived so many relentless monsoons and haboobs.)

Miley’s fastball velocity has hovered around 91 MPH throughout his career. In recent years, he’s added a cutter to his repertoire and become significantly less reliant on his fastball. Former Orioles pitching coach and manager Ray Miller, who passed away last week, preached: Work fast, change speeds, throw strikes. Miley did just that on Friday.

We’ve seen four no-hitters so far this season, and people around the game are pointing to the all-time low MLB batting average of .234 as the root of the issue. I’ve never witnessed a no-hitter in person, and I have a difficult time viewing no-hitters as emblematic of a problem in the game.

Hitting overall is not where many in the game want it to be — the focus on power and loft at all costs can make for a boring product — but the energy and tension deep into a no-hitter is hard to replicate in a regular season game.

I was at Petco Park in 2006 when Chris Young carried a no-no into the ninth inning against the Pirates. A pinch-hit two-run homer by Joe Randa ended that pursuit, though the Padres franchise finally achieved its first no-hitter earlier this season. Believe me, that accomplishment won’t be diminished by a low collective MLB batting average.

Clarification from Elias

As we discussed last week, Bumgarner’s abbreviated no-no left us with more questions than answers. Well, I reached out to John Labombarda, the Director of Research at the Elias Sports Bureau.

He confirmed that the “free” runner placed on second base in an extra inning will not be considered a batter reaching base safely.

In fact, if a pitcher were to throw a complete game of at least nine innings and retire every batter he faces, it is a perfect game.

So, indeed, if that “free” runner were to come around to score via productive outs, a pitcher could allow a run and still throw a perfect game. While not incredibly likely, it’s still quite possible that a pitcher could throw a perfect game and lose. That’s a celebration I want to witness.

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