What Would AJ Do?
Welcome to Warning Track Power, a newsletter of baseball stories and analysis grounded in front office and scouting experiences and the personalities encountered along the way.
Good news, friends! The Lobby Lizards are alive and well.
I observed it myself on Tuesday night when I ventured down to the Manchester Hyatt, site of the Winter Meetings. Hell, I even strapped on the scales and joined the lizards in their ritualistic hydration practices.
I had heard some reports that the Lobby Lizards may be nearing extinction. I was concerned. Concerned for friends who identify as ground-floor reptiles every December.
I’m happy to report that they’re neither extinct nor endangered. Vulnerable, perhaps. Hungover, most likely. But resilient and still a part of baseball’s fabric.
In addition to reconnecting with friends in the lobby, I was also reminded that, while standing five-foot-eight puts me on the shorter side in most social settings, it is downright diminutive in the professional baseball universe. Remember those photos of Jose Altuve standing next to Aaron Judge?
In an world of Judges, I certainly felt like an Altuve.
But, hey, laying low allowed me to ask one question to front office executives, scouts, agents and others around the game.
With Judge still unsigned at the time and the Padres reportedly making a run at nearly every available star on the market, I asked: If AJ Preller took over as Yankees GM right now, what would his first move be?
It’s an exercise that I had never before considered — a version of roster management karaoke, fantasy baseball played in character.
Over the years, Preller has established himself as someone who continually flips talent for players whom he deems ready to deliver at the Major League level. He’ll also acquire talent without the concern that his peers show for chemistry and roster flexibility.
The best-player-available strategy usually only applies to the draft. For Preller, it’s also how he likes to improve his big league team.
Yankees GM Brian Cashman, meanwhile, has carefully held onto blue chip prospects over the past few years. His style of patience and discipline is lauded and criticized, depending on which way the wind is blowing at Yankee Stadium.
No doubt, both teams are expected to win big in 2023.
From 2018-2021, the Padres farm system was no lower than third in Baseball America’s annual rankings. This past August, less than four months ago, San Diego’s system had fallen to 23rd. The Juan Soto trade was the final move that all but emptied the cupboard.
So, with the false and fiery Judge-to-the-Giants rumors still hanging in the (stale) air of the Hyatt, I asked the question.
The first answer I got: “Sign Bogaerts.”
Another answer, from someone whose smugness comes from prolonged exposure to the underbelly of the game: “Raise $400 million in off-the-books cash from a venture capital firm.” That strategy might be closer to reality than we imagine.
One long-time baseball person replied, “Trade a couple of prospects and young big leaguers for someone like Machado or Ohtani or even Trout.”
Things started warming up. “Cut the analytics staff in half,” one scout offered up. It’s funny because it’s true.
“He would do his best to get rid of Giancarlo Stanton and the others who are overpaid and don’t post. He would get a shortstop over Judge, for sure.”
Even with Judge back in pinstripes and Xander Bogaerts now in San Diego, what do you think Preller’s first move would be if he took over the Yankees today?
Me, I think he’d empty the system — shortstops Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza, outfielder Jasson Dominguez, 2022 first-rounder Spencer Jones, whatever it took — to wrest Shohei Ohtani from the Angels. Then, of course, secure the services of the two-way player for the following 12 years with a history-making contract extension.
What do you think?
When I began writing WTP two years ago, I never expected that the Padres would become the most unpredictably exciting team in baseball. Their appearance in the NLCS validates some of the machinations, but this team wasn’t put together to fall short of a World Series. With the current roster construction, expiring contracts, and diminished system, it’s 2023 or bust in San Diego.
We’ll attempt to put that puzzle together in the next few days.
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