How Much Money Is Enough?

One boutique agency isn't afraid of security

Late last month, the Detroit Tigers signed Colt Keith to a multiyear deal worth more than $28 million. If this is your first time hearing of Keith, you’re not alone. The infielder has yet to play a game at the big league level. In fact, as of one year ago, he had yet to reach Double-A.

A fifth-and-final-round selection in the truncated 2020 Draft, Keith is a hitter. As a colleague during my time with the Padres liked to say: “Hitters hit.” Have no doubt, the Tigers are betting on the bat.

After splitting his time between second base and third base last season, Keith enters Tigers camp this month with the keystone position as his to lose. I found it both amusing and telling that so many of the recent articles written about him barely mention his defense position.

Without spending a day in the Major Leagues and with plenty of questions surrounding his glove, Keith and the Tigers came to an agreement on a six-year deal worth $28,642,500 on January 28. Additionally, three club options and various escalators create a scenario in which the pact can max out at $82 million over nine years.

What’s The Deal?

As established in the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Major League minimum salary for 2024 is $740,000. It jumps by $20,000 annually each of the next two years.

Keith, meanwhile, will draw a salary of $2.5 million this season, followed by salaries of $3.5 million and $4 million in the following years. That’s $10 million guaranteed in his first three years — regardless of whether he’s in Detroit or in the minors — when he’d otherwise be earning the minimum.

His three projected arbitration years (2027-2029) are worth a total of $14 million. If Keith hits like the Tigers expect him to, this is the period of time when the team will start to see cost savings on this deal. The kicker comes in the way of single-season club options from 2030-2032, valued at $10M, $13M, and $15M. How’s your crystal ball? Well, if the one at Comerica Park is crystal clear, then the Tigers will exercise these options on a homegrown player who would otherwise have reached free agency and cashed in for a much larger amount.

Both sides assume risk. The Tigers know what their worst-case scenario financially looks like; Keith knows that he could be forgoing tens of millions of dollars. He’s also guaranteed to make more than $28 million regardless. If he outperforms his contract, well, that seems like a good problem. I think we can all agree that the decision Keith had to make wasn’t a traditional moral dilemma. He’s 22 years old. The Tigers have promised him riches. Life is good.

While Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris sat next to the player during the press conference, we should credit a couple former front office officials for bringing Keith into the organization. The 2020 Draft, an incredibly challenging one given impact the pandemic had on the baseball season, was overseen by then-scouting director Scott Pleis, who was fired after the 2022 season. At the time, Al Avila was still the GM in Detroit. As is the case in many organizations, the current regime can benefit from what their predecessors left behind.

The Agent Game

While Keith had no real control over which team would draft him, he had plenty of authority over who would represent him. I don’t have exact numbers readily available, but I can assert with full confidence that a very small number of agents and agencies represent an exclusive pool of players who collectively earn a majority of the money in the game. Put another way, a handful of agencies — The Boras Corporation, Wasserman, MVP, Excel, and CAA, for starters — account for a tremendous percentage of guaranteed money. Then there’s the rest of the agents.

Players rarely go on the record with information about their agents. In the instances they do, the agent is usually referred to stoically and impersonally as “my agent.” To be fair, these are professional relationships designed to let the player focus on, well, playing.

There’s nothing taboo about broaching the subject, but often that kind of background isn’t germane to the story. It’s easier to figure out why players might change agents mid-career — usually it’s for the same reasons that you might change internet providers: price, trust, reliability, and a referral from a respected friend.

Keith was drafted out of Biloxi High School in Biloxi, Mississippi. His advisor (the term for an agent who works with an amateur player), Matt Paul, lived nearby. Sometimes, the beginning of a formal relationship is as simple as geography. (Yes, we now have both a player and an agent who have first names for last names. Try to stick with me here.)

When I see that a young player has signed an extension that buys out his arbitration years (and continues into what would have been free-agent years), the first thing I do is look at the agent. Keith is represented by Munger English Sports Management, a firm that bills itself as a “boutique-style” agency. That reminds me of when a 300-square-foot apartment unit in New York is described as “charming.”

Munger English, founded by Nick English and staffed with several other agents (including Paul), has a few big leaguers in its stable and a number of minor league players and prospects. Most notably, the best big leaguers all have sacrificed earning power for security.

The Stable

Rangers reliever Jose Leclerc converted all 12 save opportunities he was handed late in the 2018 season. The next spring, he signed a four-year deal worth $14 million. It covered his final season before arbitration (when he’d essentially make the Major League minimum) and all three seasons in which he’d be arb-eligible. On one hand, the closer had parlayed a dozen strong appearances into an eight-figure deal; on the other, he had postponed his opportunity to reach free agency. The contract included two club options, one for last season and one for this season, totaling $12.25 million.

Leclerc is represented by Munger English, which according to their website, employs Angelo Leclerc, the pitcher’s brother.

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During the life of the contract, both the player and the team have experienced wide ranges of emotions. In 2019, Leclerc struggled and eventually lost the closer role. In 2020, he made only two appearances because of shoulder injury. Then, during Spring Training of 2021, he suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. Nonetheless, the pitcher was guaranteed almost $5 million in 2022 because of the contract. Leclerc’s tribulations are a strong endorsement for choosing security over upside.

Last season, the Rangers took advantage of the low-risk option and exercised the reliever’s services for $6 million. He appeared in 57 games, pitched to a 2.68 ERA, and recorded four saves. Then he picked up four saves during his team’s postseason run. In the World Series, he retired 10 of the 11 batters he faced. He’ll finally reach free agency after this season at the age of 31.

In the end, it’s hard to believe that LeClerc would have found a way to greater fortune going year to year. When a team tenders a contract to a player who is recovering from elbow surgery, it usually includes some kind of discount and/or option for the team. In fact, we could argue that LeClerc’s contract essentially required that Texas rehabilitate him and focus on his long-term health. With only 40 career regular-season saves and an average of more than four walks-per-inning over the last two years, the player’s agent did right by him in landing this deal.

One Of Seven

Colt Keith is only the seventh player in MLB history to receive a multiyear extension without a day of service in the big leagues.

The Brewers signed their top prospect, Venezuelan-born Jackson Chourio, to an $82 million, eight-year deal earlier this winter. Chourio is widely regarded as one of the very top prospects in all of baseball. The difference in guaranteed dollars between his deal and Keith’s deal speaks more about their projected and expected futures than any scouting report could.

The other players to receive extensions before suiting up for their first game: Luis Robert Jr., Evan White, Eloy Jimenez, Scott Kingery, and Jon Singleton. In what I believe is simply the result of a small sample size, the two international players — both of whom play for the White Sox — have outperformed their contracts, while the American players — White, Kingery, and Singleton — have been busts.

Keith has a chance to change the narrative for U.S.-born players this season.

The Potential Risk

The trade-off in these deals is straightforward: Teams guarantee players much more money very early in their careers in exchange for more modest arbitration-year salaries and, most importantly, cost control over the first year(s) of free agency.

Michael Harris II debuted with the Braves on May 28, 2022, shortly after his 21st birthday. Less than three months later, he signed an eight-year, $72 million contract with two club options that could raise the total value of the deal to $102 million. That’s a lot of money, no?

Harris is represented by Munger English.

Harris’ 2022 campaign earned him Rookie of the Year honors. This past season, he was a Gold Glove finalist in center field.

Tomorrow is not promised to any of us. If you’ve watched baseball long enough, you can name several players whose bright lights were extinguished faster than we ever could have imagined. Harris is currently on a trajectory to make the Braves investment look brilliant. Atlanta has done the same with Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, and many more.

This willingness to limit future earnings doesn’t sit well with many of the bigger agents and more hawkish players. Scott Boras is notorious for leading his players through each year of arbitration and positioning them for the biggest bite of the apple in their earliest possible opportunity at free agency.

When I saw that the three highest profile clients in the Munger English stable had all signed early extensions, I wondered about the agency’s motivations. Did a “boutique” shop need guaranteed annual income to keep the lights on? Or does the agency simply believe that one of the greatest services they can provide is to set their clients up for life and remove as much uncertainty from their careers as possible, even if it limits the upside? The MLB Players Association may not love these practices, but it’s becoming part of the game.

Three years ago, I wrote about Twins pitcher Randy Dobnak’s five-year, $9 million extension. Dobnak was a former Uber driver who found himself starting Game 2 of the 2019 ALDS in Yankee Stadium. And, no, he hadn’t taken a wrong turn off the Cross Bronx Expressway.

Since signing that deal prior to the 2021 season, Dobnak has thrown 50+ big league innings to the tune of a 1-7 record and a 7.64 ERA. His last Major League appearance came on September 3, 2021; still, he’ll make more than $2 million this season and he’s guaranteed $3 million in 2025.

Many agents wouldn’t have pursued this deal. Dobnak’s little-known agent, Matt Gaeta, deserves a lot of credit for setting up his client for life.

Cincinnati On Deck

Christian Encarnacion-Strand made his big league debut for the Reds last year on July 17. He’ll enter this season with 77 days of Major League Service. That’s about three weeks more than Harris had when he signed his extension with the Braves. Like Harris, he’s represented by Munger English. Like Keith, he’s a bat-first player.

Cincinnati’s front office — and the entire league — has to be well aware of the agency’s tendencies. Is there another extension on the way?

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