The Unfortunate Case of Chad Green

With durability comes sacrifice

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Chad Green entered the game with a man on first base and nobody out. The Yankees were trailing the Indians — hey folks, it was 2017 — by a score of 2-1.

Cleveland came into the contest winners of five straight. No one knew then that they were on their way to a record 22 wins in a row.

I wrote about this game last year because it marked for me the day when I realized the modern game had been distilled to little more than strikeouts and walks.

It was the top of the sixth when Green was called upon to relieve Yankees starter Jaime Garcia. The first batter he faced went down looking; the next batter struck out swinging on the front end of a strike-’em-out-throw-’em-out double play. Two batters, three outs. Pretty good work, Chad Green.

The following inning, he struck out the side. After surrendering a leadoff double to Jose Ramirez in the top of the eighth, he struck out the next two batters before giving way to another reliever who closed out the frame.

In total, Green recorded eight outs, seven by strikeout. After appearing in 12 games for the Yankees in 2016, including eight starts, Green was establishing himself as a dominant reliever in ’17.

That season, he logged 69 innings over 40 games, striking out 103 while walking only 17. He rarely gave up runs. Nearly half of his appearances came on no more than two days of rest.

He got six outs or more 17 times. He pitched more than one inning three out of every four times he took the ball. He never allowed more than two runs in any outing, and he did that only four times.

He entered with runners on base in 21 of his outings. He inherited a total of 31 runners. Four scored. Four!

The MLB average rate for inherited runners scoring that season was 30%. The Yankees rate was 27%. Green’s: 13%.

Chad Green was the patch that sealed the Yankees pitching staff whenever it began to leak air. He was a multi-inning navigator, a fixer, a cleaner, a bridge, a company man.

In the seasons that followed, his appearances and innings pitched grew. In the 60-game season of 2020, Green appeared in 36% of all Yankees games, in line with his pace from the two prior campaigns.

Last year, he appeared in 67 games and logged 83.2 innings, both career highs. He had 17 decisions, second most on the team.

From 2017-2021, Green had the fifth-highest WAR, according to Fangraphs, for relievers.¹

Whether Joe Girardi or Aaron Boone, the manager kept handing him the ball. When his team needed him, he took the ball.

Until finally, his elbow blew out… about five months before he was due to reach free agency.

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Green’s salary this year, in his final year of arbitration, is $4 million. Obviously, he’s doing pretty well for himself, but if you find yourself reading along (hello there!), you know that we’re well past the “overpaid millionaire” phase of our relationship.

Green has earned about $8.5 million in his career. This past offseason, reliever Kendall Graveman signed a three-year, $24 million deal with the White Sox. That deal likely would have served as the floor for Green’s negotiations, perhaps the starting point from a team knowing it would cost more than that to secure his services.

Instead, his rehab from Tommy John surgery will likely last beyond Opening Day next year. There will be teams willing to offer him a two-year deal, fully recognizing that they won’t be receiving anything close to two full seasons of pitching — and offers will account for the inherent risk to any pitcher coming off UCL replacement.

But there are precedents for similar deals, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he signs back with New York — assuming Green is comfortable with the medical staff in the Bronx. Still, it will be for significantly less than he would have received if, say, free agency had come one year earlier.

The Yankees, after acquiring Green in a trade with the Tigers in December 2015, squeezed every drop of value out of the reliever. Sadly, from a business standpoint, the Yankees managed Green almost perfectly. Their only misstep, really, was not keeping him healthy for an additional five months.

(I’ll give everyone a moment now to feel sorry for the Yankees.)

The past seven seasons for Green also validates the acrimony that persisted during the lockout. The value that New York derived from their pitcher is about 10 times greater than what it costs on the open market.

Green gave his best years to the Yankees, only to make less in his three arbitration years that he would make in one year as a healthy free agent.

While this scenario could present itself as a morality case, it’s really just bad luck.

Green’s teammate Zack Britton signed as a free agent with the Yankees prior to the 2019 season, agreeing to a three-year, $39 million deal. The contract included a player option for the 2022 season, and it required a decision at the end of the 2020 season (thanks to some shrewd negotiating by Scott Boras).

The Yanks exercised the option, essentially turning the deal into a four-year, $53 million agreement. When persistent elbow problems led to Tommy John surgery for Britton last September, the guaranteed money for this season became all the more valuable.

At the time of his injury, Britton was already covered by a lucrative contract. For Green, he’ll enter the market still injured, the accomplishments of his Major League career secondary to the fresh scar over his right elbow.

As for the Yankees, they’re already searching for someone else — maybe the recently reliable Clarke Schmidt or Michael King, both far from free agency — to bear the toll of multiple high-leverage innings in relief. With the expanded 26-man roster in place and additional safety-conscious measures instituted earlier in the season, those pitchers have a better chance at staying healthy and at having a teammate — an equal — to share the work.

Still, we wait for Chad Green, a lone wolf from an era that seemingly ended when he exited the game on May 19, to return and pitch his next team to safety.

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1. Josh Hader, Liam Hendricks, Kenley Jansen, Edwin Diaz.