Going To School in the AFL
Going To School in the AFL
Learning to scout from three baseball lifers while shopping a Cy Young Award winner
Like any student trying to make a good impression, I showed up ahead of time and prepared. It was October 2008, and I was in the lobby of the Residence Inn in Peoria, Ariz., ready for my ride along. I was early — so I thought. Yet somehow I was the last of the foursome to arrive for departure.
Lesson #1: Being early has nothing to do with the clock on the wall; timeliness instead is a function of the driver’s current location and eagerness to leave.
The man with the car keys was Bill Bryk, a baseball lifer and — on any given night — mayor of the scout section. Brykie loves baseball and he loves people, and along with an eye for talent and decades-old relationships in the game, it made him a formidable scout.
He was also ready to go. “Meet in the lobby at 5:00” actually meant “I’ll be calling your cell at 4:55 if I don’t see you by then.” I had known Bryk— and the two other scouts with us — since 2005. We’d end up spending a lot of time at games together over the years. One of the things I loved most about being around Brykie was that the excitement he exhibited before leaving for a game or heading from the office to the scout section was the same nervous energy I would feel before a little league game or on the way to Memorial Stadium as a kid. It was pure.
Riding shotgun was Ken Bracey, a man whose recall of seemingly every player he had ever scouted intimidated the hell out of me during my initial encounters with him. Later on, I learned to enjoy his company (I was lucky to stay on his good side) and rely on him for his baseball wisdom. (Brace passed away a few years ago and is remembered wonderfully in this article by Tracy Ringolsby.)
I was in the backseat with Chris Gwynn, a veteran of 10 MLB seasons and the brother of baseball royalty. When I had questions about hitting, I asked Chris. When I had questions about fielding, I asked Chris. When I had questions about anything that occurred on or around the field, I asked Chris.
On the evening of Thursday, October 16 — our first night in town — we headed to Phoenix Municipal Stadium to watch the Peoria Saguaros, a team that included some Padres prospects, play the Phoenix Desert Dogs.
We had been sent to the Arizona Fall League by Kevin Towers specifically to watch a couple players in the Braves organization for a potential trade of staff ace Jake Peavy. Only one year prior, Peavy was the National League Cy Young Award winner. In that 2007 season, he had won pitching’s triple crown, leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.
Now, heading into the 2009 season, there was a good chance Peavy would never wear the Padres uniform again.
Before scouting the targeted players, though, we settled in at the home of the Desert Dogs.
New York Mets prospect Bobby Parnell drew the starting assignment for Peoria. I had my scouting notebook ready, opened to a pitching template that was blank save for Parnell’s biographical info that I had diligently filled out prior to game. I thought I was ready. I look back on that evening and realize how absurd it was that I thought I was ready because I had a fully charged radar gun and the starting pitcher’s height and weight.
Parnell walked the first two batters of the game. From what I remember, when he missed, he missed badly. The game was moving fast on me — much faster than it had while working the radar gun at Petco Park. I needed to be forming an opinion on a pitcher who was hitting the backstop as frequently as the catcher’s mitt.
I was trying to describe and evaluate Parnell’s mechanics while also trying to watch the pitch, understand the intent behind his pitches, and assign grades to each of his offerings. I’m not sure I was able to accomplish any of those things.
He managed to escape the first inning unscathed, striking out Josh Donaldson to retire the side. His second inning of work began with a walk and included another walk and a double before his night came to an end.
I still remember being back in my room at the hotel that night, staring at my game card for Bobby Parnell and wondering what I would write — not as a report of what had happened but as a projection of what he’d become.
Lesson #2: Trust what you see. Ask yourself: Does this player look like the guys on TV, in the big league stadiums? Think broadly: Does he look like a starter or reliever? (That was not a lesson learned overnight.)
Lesson #2b: Consider bringing a camera to the game to capture the pitcher’s delivery so you don’t have to worry about analyzing it in real time. Watch the game instead!
Two days later, on October 18, we went to Mesa for the main event. Tommy Hanson, top prospect of the Atlanta Braves, was pitching. Even better, catching Hanson was another Braves prospect, Tyler Flowers.
Hanson was electric. I don’t have any video from the day — unfortunately my Blackberry didn’t have those capabilities — and I don’t have my notes from that trip anymore, but I remember watching Hanson overpower hitters. He threw four shutout innings, striking out nine. All that spoiled a perfect outing was a hit batter.
At the time back in San Diego, pressure to trade Peavy had begun building internally. The 2008 season was a 99-loss disaster for the Padres, a full-season hangover from the Game 163 heartbreak the year prior in Colorado.
On the ride back to the hotel, after listening to the three scouts share their feelings on the pitcher, I asked something to the effect of: If we feel like Hanson is going to be a great big league pitcher, why not consider doing a straight-up deal for Peavy?
Part of the answer was rooted in the unknown element of a prospect, no matter how advanced or polished he looked. Part of the answer was about baseball conventions — you could get more for a proven player. After all, Peavy was still only one year removed from his Cy Young season and was still regarded as one of the best in the game. I was more sensitive to the desire to execute a trade than the industry was, and that certainly impacted my thinking.
The Braves, an organization that’s well known for drafting and developing very well, held on to their young pitcher and catcher. Peavy, after exercising his no-trade rights once in 2009, finally accepted a trade to the Chicago White Sox — the team in Bill Bryk’s backyard — on July 31 that season.
In retrospect, trading an injured pitcher with about $56 million of guaranteed money still on his contract was nothing short of a miracle. Peavy had good — not great — years for the White Sox and Clayton Richard, the primary piece of the four-player return, had a few decent years for the Padres.
Hanson (with or without Flowers) from the Braves would have represented a better return, but that deal never really had a chance.
The White Sox never made the postseason with Peavy on the roster. In his three full season with the team, he only logged more than 120 innings once. The White Sox traded him to the Red Sox during the final year of his contract.
The One The White Sox Would Like Back
Yesterday, reports of a $340 million extension for Padres star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. surfaced.
Tatis, of course, was acquired from the White Sox for James Shields in 2016. I remember seeing the then-18-year-old Tatis in Spring Training with the Padres in 2017. He finished a round of batting practice right around the same time I caught the eye of then-manager Andy Green, whom I knew well from our time together with the Diamondbacks.
Andy remarked how they felt like they had found something special with the big kid, who had arrived from the White Sox less than a year earlier. He was right.
Soon after news of Tatis’ mammoth extension broke, I received a text from a friend. He asked if his hunch that this deal was favorable for the Padres — even with the uncertainty of the current labor agreement — was correct.
Of the 14 years guaranteed to Tatis, the first four years buy out his one remaining pre-arbitration year (2021) and three years of arbitration. He wasn’t scheduled to reach free agency until after the 2024 season.
Cody Bellinger set the record for the salary of a first year arbitration-eligible player in 2020 with his $11.5 million deal. This season Bellinger will receive $16.1 million.
Tatis’s home run totals are well off of Bellinger’s, and Bellinger was the NL MVP in 2019. Bellinger’s three-year arbitration haul will likely land around $48 million. Tatis is off that pace, but to assume $40 million over his arb years is certainly reasonable and probably a bit conservative. (Don’t forget, we’re examining a 14-year extension before Tatis has even played one day under it.)
That leaves us with $300 million over 10 years — the exact deal the Padres gave Manny Machado in free agency two winters ago.
It’s crazy to call a $340 million deal “team friendly,” and it’s ridiculous to think that a 22-year-old player would turn down that guarantee in the hopes of more via a riskier, year-by-year approach. The deal is a win-win, which is the only word that the organization and the player care about as Spring Training begins.
And now for the right side of the infield…
Thank you for reading Warning Track Power. In 28.2 IP in the 2008 Arizona Fall League, Tommy Hanson struck out 49 while walking only seven. He went 5-0 with a 0.63 ERA and became the first pitcher to win MVP of the league. Sadly, Hanson passed away in 2015. Subscribe now to have WTP delivered to your inbox every Thursday.