A Division United
The AL West has not brought in any high-profile free agents, making it the most interesting division to follow
In 2005, my first year working in baseball, the Padres captured the NL West title with an 82-80 regular season record. There were times throughout the season when people questioned whether the division winner would even be at .500. But the lackluster race wasn’t for a lack of trying.
The Giants spent about $90 million on player payroll (seventh in MLB in 2005); the Dodgers more than $80 million (11th in MLB). The rest of the division was much more modest: the Padres and D-backs spent similarly, somewhere around $62 million, and the Rockies weren’t too far behind at about $57 million.
In 2005, it wasn’t yet cool not to try. Most teams gave it a go, even if they knew October baseball wasn’t a likely destination.
Fast-forward to the present day, let’s flip over to the American League West.
Last week I was looking at the transactions in the AL West. Well, more realistically I was looking for them. The biggest name added to the division: Dexter Fowler? Best player added: Jose Iglesias? Meanwhile, George Springer and Marcus Semien are gone, and everything else in the AL West looks like it’ll be taking place on the margins and with existing players (some of whom are stars and big free agent-acquisitions from recent years).
Of Major League Trade Rumors top 50 free agents, only two signed in the AL West (the Astros re-signed Michael Brantley, and the Angels signed Jose Quintana).
The Angels, under new GM Perry Minasian, addressed some rotation needs with Alex Cobb and Quintana. Both pitchers are on the downsides of their careers, but if either experiences a bounce-back year, Minasian will look brilliant. And, while patching up the pitching staff, it made a lot of sense to acquire Raisel Iglesias from the Reds to strengthen the back end of the bullpen.
Look, when you have a core of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani, you’ve got to do what you can to support them. But when you’re also paying Albert Pujols and Justin Upton $53 million combined in the coming season, there’s only so much you can do. Albert’s on his third GM of the contract! And he’s about to embark upon the 21st full season of his MLB career! And in his 11 years with the Cardinals, who made quick work of the Padres the 2005 NLDS, he finished in the top five of the MVP vote 10 times. Ten times!
Enough about Albert, though. What I’m trying to say is that the AL West is going to be the most exciting division to follow this year. Each club approached free agency as if they were looking away from the teacher, hoping not to be called on. Following this division has been like watching televised poker without the lipstick cam to show the hole cards. Is everyone bluffing, or are the A’s once again lulling the general public back into the same place they usually do?
This is where it gets interesting. With the exception of the Rangers, I think every team has a chance of winning the division.
Is there one team that might be trying more than we know? I’m going with the Seattle Mariners.
They were mediocre last year, but played .500 ball in the division and got a little better as the season went on. They have the best farm system in the division — and it might be the best by far because of the poor quality of the other four clubs.
The Mariners have not been shy about their, shall we say, different approaches to player development. I’ve been a skeptic, but I’m willing to say this: Last year presented an incredible challenge to minor league players, coaches, and player development staff. The M’s seemed to embrace the instructional vibe of their minor league season. We may not see it for a few years — and it may not come from Seattle either — but there’s no way that the minor league season was a zero-sum game in 2020. There are teams that made significant gains on their opponents last year, and that’s going to start showing up as early as this season.
With so few significant roster changes in the AL West, the little things in the game have a better chance of showing up.
The Commissioner’s New Balls
The rabbit ball hysteria of 2019 died down amidst a global pandemic and shortened 2020 season. But some teams still had to be considering that a different ball would be introduced in the near future. How might teams alter analytically driven player evaluations if decision-makers believed a new ball was on the horizon? What opportunities exist for a team that recalibrates its numbers under the assumption of a different, less lively baseball? The teams in the AL West are led by people too bright, too curious, and too ambitious not to investigate these kinds of opportunities.
Maybe it shows up in a minor league free agent who has a career year. Maybe it’s through a trade. Or maybe it’s in one of the Major League signings that I glossed over while reading the transaction pages. I don’t need to know why or where just yet, I just need to know that the AL West is going to be the most exciting division in 2021.
Thank you for reading Warning Track Power. You know what? I think the Mariners have a real chance of winning the division this year. And if they do, Brodie Van Wagenen deserves serious consideration for Executive of the Year. Subscribe now to have WTP delivered to your inbox every Thursday.
Great breakdown of a division I wasn’t previously prone to think much about in 2021. Can’t wait for pitchers and catchers to report!